by Olii Boran, PhD
(an article by invitation)
Leadership, often idealized as a mechanism for fostering stability, driving progress, and leaving behind a positive legacy, can also be manipulated as a tool for perpetuating dysfunction. “Leading by chaos, not competence” encapsulates a leadership strategy where chaos is not an accident, but a deliberate tool used by leaders to consolidate power, obscure failures, and suppress resistance. This approach, rooted in manipulation and systemic insecurity, has profound implications for societies and organizations.
The Anatomy of Leadership by Chaos
Chaos is not just a byproduct of ineffective leadership—it can be a weapon wielded deliberately. Researchers studying toxic leadership and crisis dependency have identified several ways chaos serves as a strategic tool:
- Deflecting scrutiny: By fostering instability, leaders divert attention away from systemic problems and personal failings.
- Fragmenting resistance: A disoriented and overwhelmed populace is less likely to organize effectively against leadership.
- Maintaining power: Constant instability discourages challengers and makes the leader appear indispensable, as only they seem equipped to navigate the disorder they themselves create.
The Sociopolitical Underpinnings of Chaos-Driven Leadership
- Machiavellianism: In one of his works, The Prince, Niccolò Machiavelli emphasizes using manipulation and fear to stay in power. In chaotic situations, fear increases, making the leader seem essential and irreplaceable.
- Crisis Dependency: Leaders who thrive on crisis cultivate a perception of indispensability. The narrative that “only I can fix it” becomes a potent tool for maintaining control.
- Toxic Leadership: This leadership style is marked by narcissism, paranoia, and a refusal to tolerate dissent. Chaos becomes both a symptom and a strategy of such governance.
This framework resonates with the leadership styles of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Oromia Regional President Shimelis Abdisa. Their governance provides stark examples of how chaos is employed to consolidate power and marginalize opposition.
Important Note: While “Leading by Chaos, Not Competence” applies to other Ethiopian regions and the federal government, the author intends to focus specifically on the Oromia regional administration in relation to the federal government.
The Oromia Case: Shimelis Abdisa’s Governance by Chaos
Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest and most populous region, illustrates the application of chaos as a governing strategy. Under Shimelis Abdisa, the region has been embroiled in unrest and insecurity, much of it attributed to deliberate actions or calculated inaction:
- The Creation of Parallel Criminal Organizations:
The Oromia regional government has deliberately established an extreme criminal organization operating parallel to the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). This group is commonly referred to as “Oromia Government Shanee” (OGS), with “Shanee” being the derogatory term the government uses to describe the OLA. The primary purpose of OGS is to discredit the OLA by associating it with acts of terrorism, including mass murder, arson, extortion, kidnapping, and ransom demands. The list of such acts is extensive and continues to grow. - Neglecting Border Protection:
Oromia’s borders have been left deliberately porous, inviting incursions by armed groups such as the Amhara Fano militia. It is no coincidence that Amhara Fano regularly carries out incursions into Oromia from the west, north, and east Shawa. It almost appears as if the Oromia government is inviting these actions. For years, even before Amhara Fano became a formal fighting force, armed Amhara groups could freely enter East Shawa to seize Karrayyuu cattle and other belongings. Instead of protecting the Karrayyuu communities from such pillaging, the Oromia administration disarmed the Karrayyuus, while the Amhara administration, in stark contrast, was actively arming its border populations using taxpayers’ money. This was not a random occurrence but rather a well-coordinated and sinister activity. See also a related section below on the federal government under “Government-Sanctioned Criminal Groups” as the federally sanctioned Fano militia is becoming increasingly prominent. - Governance by Fear and Death Squads:
The Koree Nageenya death squad, linked to Shimelis’s administration, is implicated in systematic political assassinations, including the high-profile killing of Oromo leaders. These atrocities, exposed by investigative reports from organizations like Reuters, reveal a chilling strategy to silence dissent under the guise of fighting terrorism. Koree Nageenyaa is responsible for thousands of deaths, notably including the 14 Karrayyuu Abbaa Gadaas and the Oromo politician Battee Urgeessaa. - Exploitation of Grassroots Governance:
Shimelis’s “cabinet of cadres” operates at a hyper-local level, blending governance (or lack of it) with surveillance. Ordinary households are subjected to unofficial taxation to fund regional and federal armies, with dissenters labeled as threats to stability. Have you recently heard Shimelis Abdisa boast about his Oromia government, claiming it is 7,232 strong? If that statement seemed unclear before, it should make sense to you now. View the video clip about the 7232 strong government by Shimelis Abdisa. - Staged Chaos to Divide Communities:
The strategies for governance by chaos are extensive and far-reaching, with the examples above being some of the most significant. It is important to note that some of these strategies involve simple complicity—such as deliberate inaction, like failing to protect the population or secure borders. In other cases, they include unimaginable acts, such as the recent massacre in Arsii, where approximately nine Orthodox Christians were killed. This atrocity was orchestrated to inflame tensions between the Amhara and Oromo communities, once again resorting to the overused tactic of blaming the OLA. The recent beheading of a young man in Dharraa, north Oromia, which sparked a social media uproar and subsequent demonstrations in Oromia, demands scrutiny. To what extent was this chaos deliberately designed and staged, potentially involving collaboration—whether explicit or unintentional—between the Oromia administration and Amhara Fano? - Strategic Manipulation of Power Dynamics, and the Taxation Chaos:
Refer to Sections 5 and 6 with the corresponding titles below, which elaborate on the coordinated efforts between the Oromia regional government and the federal government in orchestrating these chaotic actions. - Plunder of Oromia’s Precious Metals and Minerals:
The silent plunder of Oromia’s gold, including the Laga Dambi mine, and other precious resources by corrupt officials represents a grave injustice that deprives Oromia of its future. These valuable minerals, which could support education, healthcare, and infrastructure for millions, instead enrich a select few at the expense of the many. This exploitation flourishes in secrecy, with the UAE frequently identified as a destination not only for Oromia’s resources but also for those taken from other regions like Tigray. Enabled by a lack of accountability and public awareness, this systemic looting demands urgent attention. Transparency, independent oversight, and active community participation in resource management are essential to ending this exploitation. By exposing these injustices, we can advocate for change and reclaim what rightfully belongs to the Oromo people.
The Ethiopia Case: PM Abiy Ahmed’s Rule by Chaos
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership reflects a broader application of chaos as a national strategy. Far from being an accident, Ethiopia’s instability under his administration appears meticulously crafted:
- Ethnic Fragmentation as a Tool:
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s governance is a quintessential example of deliberate chaos. If you still question why Abiy betrayed his Oromo electorate and aligned himself with the Amhara elite, adopting their agenda and priorities, the answer becomes clear in hindsight. This shift, which earned him accolades from the Amhara elite, such as being referred to as “Nebiy, not Abiy” (Nebiy being Amharic for prophet), was no accident. It was a calculated political maneuver. The creation and exacerbation of rifts—between Amhara and Oromo, and between Amhara and Tigray—were not coincidental. Historically, unity among Ethiopia’s diverse ethnic groups, such as the relative alignment of Amharas, Oromos, and other nationalities in 1974, played a critical role in bringing down the imperial regime over grievances as seemingly minor as ten cents’ increase in fuel prices. At that time, collective discontent catalyzed significant political change. Today, however, despite the monumental scale of social and economic problems, including widespread poverty, far worse than that of 1974, such unity is conspicuously absent. Why? The strategic rifts intentionally planted among Ethiopia’s nations and nationalities effectively suppress collective action. By sowing division, Abiy ensures that grievances remain fragmented, preventing the emergence of a unified opposition. This calculated fragmentation of national solidarity is a cornerstone of his governance strategy, and he exploits it to its fullest advantage. - The Tigray War:
The catastrophic war in Tigray, which claimed over a million lives, underscores the dangers of chaos-driven governance. Far from resolving grievances through dialogue, Abiy opted for military confrontation, fueling a humanitarian crisis that destabilized Ethiopia and the broader Horn of Africa. If you analyze the Tigray war and its underlying causes, it becomes evident that it was a manifestation of governance by chaos. Had the situation been managed with competence, the tragedies that claimed over one million lives could have been avoided. Looking back just four years, the events that unfolded seem almost like a chapter from biblical history due to their scale and intensity. During this period, Amhara elites became intoxicated with notions of supremacy, symbolized by the revival of Menelik-era nationalism, which fueled genocidal rhetoric against Tigrayans. This campaign was further sanctified by blessings from segments of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed celebrated as a newfound Messiah for the Amhara constituency. Do you believe all of this was mere coincidence? Far from it. These events were the deliberate machinations of Abiy Ahmed, the architect of this chaos. He skillfully capitalized on inter-ethnic hatred, perpetuating and exploiting it to serve his political motives, consolidate power, and suppress any unified opposition. The Tigray war was not an unintended consequence, but a direct result of governance driven by division and discord. - Religious Polarization:
How about the Ethiopian Orthodox Church and its conflict with the short-lived Afan Oromo-based Oromia Synod? Do you believe the staging of this crisis and its subsequent mismanagement was merely coincidental? Not at all. This entire episode exemplifies the deliberate orchestration of chaos, carefully designed to serve ulterior motives. The crisis began when legitimate grievances were raised by a faction within the Ethiopian Orthodox Church advocating for linguistic and cultural inclusivity in Oromia. Instead of addressing these concerns constructively, the government manipulated the situation to escalate tensions. What defies logic in this saga is that those who voiced legitimate grievances were the ones who ended up behind bars, while the root causes of the conflict were left unaddressed. This inversion of justice is a hallmark of governance by chaos—where apparent actions lack transparency, and outcomes seem designed to defy common sense. When chaos is deployed as a governing strategy, the underlying motives are often obscured. Every action appears contradictory or illogical on the surface because it serves hidden agendas known only to the leadership. In this case, the government’s actions deepened divisions within the church, inflamed public outrage, and diverted attention from its broader failures. The Oromia Synod crisis is a textbook example of how chaos can be wielded to distract, divide, and deflect. By fueling religious and ethnic tensions, the administration reinforced its narrative of indispensability, portraying itself as the only force capable of navigating the turmoil it had fostered. The real motives behind these actions—whether to weaken potential sources of unified opposition or to assert dominance over religious institutions—remain shrouded in ambiguity. However, what is clear is that such calculated chaos serves the interests of a leadership that thrives on disorder and thrives on its ability to manipulate it to its advantage. - Government Sanctioned Criminal Groups:
Abiy employs a criminal group resembling the OGS (see for Oromia above), which may be referred to as the Prosperity Party Fano (PPF). These groups operate alongside the Amhara Fano but act in alignment with Abiy’s agenda, collaborating with the OGS to defame the OLA by attributing the PPF’s actions to the OLA. Just as the Oromia government strategizes with the OGS, it is evident that the Amhara Regional Government coordinates and funds the PPF with federal government support. The PPF has perpetrated numerous massacres in the Oromia region. The intentional ambiguity by design clearly contributes to the confusion and chaos, with the OLA entangled alongside the OGS in Oromia, and the PPF functioning as a cross-border criminal entity operating in both Oromia and Amhara regions. - Strategic Manipulation of Power Dynamics:
The fear of Oromia’s potential resistance reveals an underlying insecurity within the federal and regional governments regarding its ability to maintain cohesion and authority. This fear drives policies that are both short-sighted and potentially destabilizing in the long term. To maintain control over Oromia, a region perceived as politically or culturally threatening, the federal government has systematically disarmed the Oromo population. Driven by this fear, what PM Abiy Ahmed and President Shimelis Abdisa have done to Oromia during their reign is particularly alarming: the Oromo population has been systematically disarmed. Meanwhile, Amharas living in Oromia are well-armed, creating an intentional imbalance. When comparing regions, the disparity becomes even clearer—Amhara, Tigray, Afar, and Somali regions are all armed. Furthermore, the Amhara region not only actively arms its own population but also plays a role in arming Amharas in Oromia. This is done not covertly but overtly, even under the pretense of protection, as publicly acknowledged by then Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen. This asymmetric distribution of arms reflects a deliberate strategy of governance through chaos, fostering insecurity by segregating regions with unequal access to weapons. Such policies risk deepening divisions, escalating tensions, and creating a dangerously unstable environment. - The Taxation Chaos:
The self-inflicted chaotic macro-economic decision of July 2024, commonly known as the Birr devaluation, is now manifesting through another crisis of hyper-taxation, tragically targeting the most vulnerable impoverished section of society, which constitutes approximately 85% of the rural population in the empire. On top of the preexisting chaos caused by the PP government, this crisis traces back to the IMF loan conditions, one of which involved floating the Birr against the US dollar. This policy led to a 100% devaluation within the first 10 days and has since hovered between 120% and 160% depreciation. The root cause is undeniably the PP government’s focus on civil war as its mega project, leaving no productivity to address the severe trade imbalance. In a desperate bid to manage the exorbitant IMF loan interest, the PP government appears to be in panic mode, instructing its lower-level “cabinets” to impose taxes not legislated by lawmakers but instead customized by local administrative officers. This approach has resulted in another wave of chaos, opening the door to widespread corruption. Currently, no one knows the exact amount of taxation imposed in Oromia for taxable properties such as farmland or dwellings. What is certain is that tax rates appear arbitrary, varying based on who is in charge in a given locality. Alarmingly, tax amounts are inflated through the addition of unheard-of levies, such as contributions for the regional or federal army, which citizens are too fearful to contest. This situation has become a breeding ground for corruption, as tax payments often occur without official receipts being issued. For example, farmland tax that was previously around 200 Birr has been escalated up to 6,000 Birr—a staggering 30-fold increase. The PP government, as the architect of this chaos, and the IMF, as the enforcer-in-chief, have jointly pushed an already impoverished population further into destitution. - Regional Destabilization:
Abiy Ahmed’s strategy of chaos extends far beyond Ethiopia’s borders, spilling into the broader Horn of Africa and creating ripple effects of instability throughout the region. His approach is characterized by a series of undiplomatic and provocative actions that undermine regional cooperation and expose his administration’s incompetence. One glaring example is his pursuit of access to a seaport—a critical need for landlocked Ethiopia. Instead of engaging in constructive dialogue or fostering regional partnerships, PM Abiy Ahmed has opted for confrontational and erratic diplomacy. His methods have alienated potential allies and deepened mistrust among neighboring states, complicating Ethiopia’s ability to achieve this strategic objective through peaceful means. Another instance of his destabilizing actions is the unprovoked spat with Somalia, a country that shares deep historical, cultural, and economic ties with Ethiopia. Rather than working collaboratively to address shared challenges, such as security threats posed by militant groups like Al-Shabaab, Abiy’s administration has exacerbated tensions. This hostility not only undermines bilateral relations but also jeopardizes regional security efforts, as cohesion among Horn of Africa nations is critical for combating terrorism and fostering economic integration. These actions are not isolated incidents but part of a broader pattern of governance by chaos. Abiy’s inability—or unwillingness—to pursue diplomacy with tact and foresight reveals a leadership style that prioritizes short-term gains and power consolidation over long-term stability and development. By sowing discord in the Horn of Africa, he further entrenches Ethiopia’s isolation while destabilizing an already fragile region. This chaos-driven approach is emblematic of his broader governance style, one that thrives on division, uncertainty, and the erosion of cooperative frameworks. - It’s Barely Scratching the Surface:
The chaos in Ethiopia defies description, and the points mentioned earlier barely capture the complexities of the country’s dire situation. Let’s highlight some critical issues that demand urgent attention:
- Forced Conscription of Children: Ethiopian youths, some as young as 12 years old, are forcibly conscripted into the national army. These abductions occur while children are playing on school playgrounds or traveling between home and school. The conscripted children, with no prior military training or ability to handle firearms, become cannon fodder in a deteriorating conflict. Their forced recruitment reflects the desperate state of the Ethiopian military, which once boasted the largest army in Africa but has seemingly suffered massive casualties, possibly numbering in the millions. The use of underage conscripts underscores the extent of the country’s human rights crisis and the collapse of its military capabilities.
- Widespread Criminality: Organized crime, often sanctioned or overlooked by regional and federal governments, has become a lucrative enterprise. Criminals engage in illegal activities because the rewards outweigh the risks. What might take ten years to earn through legitimate means can now be gained in ten days through crime, thanks to ineffective law enforcement and governmental complicity. A glaring example is the rampant use of telephone-based ransom demands with payments processed through the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE), the country’s largest state-owned financial institution. Given that the government controls both telecommunications and internet services, how is it possible that such transactions occur without detection? Why can’t the authorities trace ransom calls or flag suspicious bank transactions? The answer seems to lie in either gross incompetence, active complicity, or a deeply entrenched culture of corruption.
- Endemic Corruption with Impunity: Corruption in Ethiopia is pervasive and operates with impunity at all levels of government—local, regional, and federal. For instance, obtaining a simple property ownership certificate can cost a minimum of 200,000 Birr, with no guarantee of authenticity. Property transactions, business registrations, tax filings, and large financial dealings often involve complex schemes of bribery and fraud. Some government departments, such as the Inland Revenue Authority, actively resist digital automation to preserve corruption loopholes. The contrast between the lavish lifestyles of government officials and the crushing poverty endured by ordinary citizens is stark and undeniable. While officials enjoy luxury, the public struggles under a skyrocketing cost of living, sinking deeper into poverty. In light of these harsh realities, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rhetoric about leading the country toward prosperity seems increasingly detached from the lived experiences of millions—a scenario reminiscent of George Orwell’s most dystopian imaginings.
- Breakdown of Essential Services: The ongoing civil wars, inter-ethnic violence, and periodic unrest have disrupted essential services nationwide. Schools, healthcare facilities, and agricultural activities have been severely affected, either partially or fully suspended in conflict-ridden areas. The cumulative impact of these disruptions will have devastating short-term and long-term consequences on Ethiopia’s development, potentially setting the country back decades.
- Media as a Tool of Disinformation: State-controlled media in Ethiopia serves as the government’s most powerful tool for spreading disinformation. Like authoritarian regimes throughout history, the Ethiopian government has weaponized public media to propagate deliberate falsehoods. The messaging is carefully crafted to manipulate the less educated, impressionable majority, portraying the ruling party as the only viable leadership option. By monopolizing media channels, the government constructs an alternate reality designed to secure its grip on power while dismissing facts and silencing dissenting voices.
Conclusion
“Leading by chaos, not competence” is a deliberate strategy that prioritizes power over progress. In Ethiopia, this approach has entrenched the rule of leaders like Abiy Ahmed and Shimelis Abdisa, but at enormous cost: ethnic fragmentation, civil war, economic decline, and countless lives lost.
The expansive and invasive governance structures, such as Shimelis Abdisa’s 7,232-strong government (whatever that is), illustrate how chaos can be institutionalized. These systems are not designed to serve the people but to perpetuate instability, ensuring the leaders’ grip on power. Recognizing and challenging this toxic paradigm is essential for Oromia’s future and equally important for Ethiopia’s.
The institutionalization of chaos is evident in bloated and corrupt governance structures—a massive bureaucratic machine designed not for governance but for power consolidation. These expansive government bodies function as tools of patronage, creating layers of control and confusion that prevent accountability while securing political loyalty. In such a system, competence becomes a liability, replaced by cronyism and corruption.
State power is wielded not to provide essential services but to foster instability. Essential sectors such as education, healthcare, and agriculture are neglected or weaponized, while the state-controlled media feeds a constant stream of disinformation. The government manipulates public perception by creating a reality where it appears indispensable, despite being the root cause of the country’s worsening conditions.
The destructive impact of “Taxation Chaos” further underscores this institutionalized instability. The IMF-imposed conditions and the PP government’s unchecked power have resulted in arbitrary and crippling tax policies targeting the rural majority. With taxation imposed by unaccountable local officials, rates fluctuate wildly and are often inflated through unofficial levies like contributions to the army. This chaotic tax regime fuels corruption and deepens poverty, making survival a daily struggle for ordinary citizens.
Chaos also serves as a convenient cover for systemic failures. Forced child conscription, state-sanctioned criminality, and endemic corruption continue because instability keeps the population disempowered and distracted. With a fragmented society, no unified opposition can effectively challenge the ruling elite. Meanwhile, the costs of this manufactured disorder are borne by ordinary citizens, who are plunged deeper into poverty, fear, and hopelessness.
Chaos may provide a temporary shield for incompetence, but it cannot sustain a functioning state. The path forward requires dismantling systems of manipulation and fostering leadership rooted in genuine reform, an empowered civil society, and decisive international engagement. Without these, the Oromia region and the Ethiopian empire risk descending further into a cycle of conflict and collapse, where chaos remains the only constant.
